TxDOT loss gap analysis: how far off the winning bid you were, and why
Not every loss is the same
A loss by 15% is a structural pricing problem. A loss by 2% is one or two line items priced wrong. This tool tells you which one you're looking at.
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Three ways to see why you lost
Close loss radar: bids you nearly won
Not all losses are equal. A contractor who lost by 15% has a structural cost competitiveness problem on that project type. A contractor who lost by 2% had a pricing error on one or two line items. This feature identifies the close losses — defined as bids where the contractor's total was within 5% of the winner — and presents them as recoverable opportunities rather than defeats.
Recurring competitors — win rate and typical price
For every positive-gap lost bid in the selected window, this analysis zones the loss (near miss under 5%, moderate 5–20%, structural over 20%), then counts how often each competitor beat you in that zone and sums their winning bid totals as revenue at stake. Use the three tables to prioritize who takes work from you most often in each gap band.
Your consistently overpriced items on lost bids
Across all lost bids, certain bid items appear repeatedly as gap drivers. These are not one-off pricing decisions, they are estimating assumptions baked into your process, showing up on every project where that item appears. Identifying these items gives you a short list of things to investigate before the next bid, rather than a generalized instruction to "price more competitively."
Frequently asked questions
- What is TxDOT bid loss gap analysis?
- It's an analysis of your lost TxDOT bids that shows how far off the winning price you were, broken down to the bid item level, so you can tell whether a loss was a structural pricing problem or a single misplaced number.
- What counts as a "close loss"?
- A bid where your total came within a set threshold, typically 5%, of the winning bid. Close losses are treated as recoverable opportunities, since they usually trace back to one or two specific bid items rather than a structural pricing gap.
- Are competitors really underbidding, or is something else going on?
- Usually something else. Most winning bids come in within 3-6% of the engineer's estimate, and a competitor's advantage on specific items is typically structural — plant ownership, volume purchasing, self-perform capability — not irrational underpricing.
- How is "gap to winner" calculated?
- It's the percentage and dollar difference between your total bid and the winning bid, on the project overall and broken down by the specific bid items driving that difference.
- What is a "swing item"?
- The single bid item responsible for the largest share of the gap between your bid and the winner's, on a given project — the item that would have changed the outcome if priced differently.
- What is recurring competitors analysis?
- For every positive-gap lost TxDOT bid in the selected window, the analysis zones the loss (near miss under 5%, moderate 5–20%, structural over 20%), then counts how often each competitor beat you in that zone and sums their winning bid totals as revenue at stake — a vendor-level rollup complementary to Close Loss Radar's project-level view.
- What does it mean if a bid item shows up as a "systematic" overpricing pattern?
- It means that item is priced above the winner's average across many lost bids, not just once, indicating a baked-in estimating assumption worth revisiting before your next bid, rather than a one-time pricing error.
- Can I filter loss analysis by district or county?
- Yes. State and county filters narrow results to your local competitive market, since win rates and gaps vary meaningfully by district.
- How far back does the loss gap data go?
- Up to 24 months by default, adjustable to a shorter window for more recent results only.
- Is Loss Gap Analysis free to use?
- Yes, available now as a free tool, no account required.