TxDOT loss gap analysis: how far off the winning bid you were, and why
Not every loss is the same
A loss by 15% is a structural pricing problem. A loss by 2% is one or two line items priced wrong. This tool tells you which one you're looking at.
Three ways to see why you lost
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Close loss radar: bids you nearly won
Not all losses are equal. A contractor who lost by 15% has a structural cost competitiveness problem on that project type. A contractor who lost by 2% had a pricing error on one or two line items. This feature identifies the close losses — defined as bids where the contractor's total was within 5% of the winner — and presents them as recoverable opportunities rather than defeats.
Filters
Total bids
24
Won
2 (8.30%)
Lost
22 (91.70%)
Close losses
1
Close losses
| CSJ | Project | Your bid | Winner bid | Gap % | Dollar gap | Swing item | Repricing simulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0135-03-046 | US 380 W of BRIDGE FARMER to 4TH ST | $147,971,439.03 | $141,412,745.53 | 4.60% | $6,558,693.50 | CONC PVMT (CPCD) (10") — $4,471,425 gap | If you had priced CONC PVMT (CPCD) (10") at the winner's unit price, your total would have been $143,500,014 — above the winner's bid. |
Want every close loss on your next bid flagged before it's a loss? → Request POC access
Competitor price floor by project type
Small contractors often lose bids believing competitors are undercutting irrationally. The data almost never supports this. Most winners bid within 3–6% of the engineer's estimate, and their cost advantage on specific items is structural (plant ownership, volume purchasing, self-perform capability) — not a willingness to lose money. This feature replaces assumption with data: here is what the competitor actually bid, item by item, on project types similar to yours.
Filters
Project types
5
Price floors
5
Window
24 mo
Your Company (Vendor)
ZACHRY CONSTRUCTION CORPORATION
2024-07-28 to 2026-07-28
Project type summaries
| District | Project type | Top winner | Your win rate | Your losses | Gap to winner | Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene | Construction | J. H. STRAIN & SONS, INC. | 0.00% | 1 | -27.90% | On construction work in the Abilene district, the winner bids on average 44.0% above the engineer's estimate. On your last 1 construction losses, you bid 16.1% above — a -27.9% gap to the winner. This is not irrational undercutting. |
| Austin | Construction | LONE STAR PAVING COMPANY | 0.00% | 2 | 39.20% | On construction work in the Austin district, the winner bids on average 10.8% above the engineer's estimate. On your last 2 construction losses, you bid 50.0% above — a 39.2% gap to the winner. This is not irrational undercutting. |
| Corpus Christi | Construction | HUNTER INDUSTRIES, LTD. | 0.00% | 3 | 28.40% | On construction work in the Corpus Christi district, the winner bids on average 9.9% above the engineer's estimate. On your last 3 construction losses, you bid 38.3% above — a 28.4% gap to the winner. This is not irrational undercutting. |
| Dallas | Construction | AUSTIN BRIDGE & ROAD SERVICES, LP | 20.00% | 4 | 35.70% | On construction work in the Dallas district, the winner bids on average 17.2% above the engineer's estimate. On your last 4 construction losses, you bid 52.9% above — a 35.7% gap to the winner. This is not irrational undercutting. |
| Houston | Construction | DURWOOD GREENE CONSTRUCTION CO. | 0.00% | 4 | 41.10% | On construction work in the Houston district, the winner bids on average 6.3% below the engineer's estimate. On your last 4 construction losses, you bid 34.8% above — a 41.1% gap to the winner. This is not irrational undercutting. |
Want this competitor price floor pulled automatically for every project type you bid? → Request POC access
Competitor price floors
| Competitor (Vendor) | Bid item | Code | Their avg | Price floor | Your avg | Your gap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDERSON COLUMBIA CO., INC. | REMOVE LRSA (647-6003) | 647-6003 | $6.50 | $6.50 | $911.50 | 13923.00% |
| ANDERSON COLUMBIA CO., INC. | PREPARING ROW (100-6002) | 100-6002 | $2,313.75 | $122.50 | $91,666.67 | 3861.80% |
| ANDERSON COLUMBIA CO., INC. | ALUMINUM SIGNS (TY A) (636-6001) | 636-6001 | $28.50 | $26.50 | $1,092.52 | 3733.40% |
| ANDERSON COLUMBIA CO., INC. | STRIP MOWING (730-6001) | 730-6001 | $215.00 | $215.00 | $5,149.19 | 2295.00% |
| ANDERSON COLUMBIA CO., INC. | ELIM EXT PAV MRK & MRKS (4") (677-6001) | 677-6001 | $2.00 | $0.82 | $39.47 | 1873.30% |
Want this competitor price floor pulled automatically for every project type you bid? → Request POC access
Your consistently overpriced items on lost bids
Across all lost bids, certain bid items appear repeatedly as gap drivers. These are not one-off pricing decisions, they are estimating assumptions baked into your process, showing up on every project where that item appears. Identifying these items gives you a short list of things to investigate before the next bid, rather than a generalized instruction to "price more competitively."
Filters
Lost bids analysed
22
Items with positive gap
206
Systematic patterns
121
Total positive gap
$621,526,671.00
2024-07-28 to 2026-07-28
Overpriced items
| Bid item | Description | Lost bids | Positive gaps | Gap share | Pattern | Your avg unit | Winner avg | Avg gap % | Total $ gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-7002 | PREPARING ROW (100-7002) | 22 | 22 | 100.00% | SYSTEMATIC | $80,032.34 | $25,764.33 | 210.60% | $132,549,303.00 | |
| 500-7001 | MOBILIZATION (500-7001) | 22 | 21 | 95.50% | SYSTEMATIC | $11,850,000.00 | $9,333,939.86 | 27.00% | $52,837,263.00 | |
| 360-7007 | CONC PVMT (CRCP) (13") (360-7007) | 15 | 24 | 160.00% | SYSTEMATIC | $131.08 | $98.50 | 33.10% | $43,089,780.00 | |
| 132-7001 | EMBANK (FNL)(OC)(TY A) (132-7001) | 21 | 23 | 109.50% | SYSTEMATIC | $42.98 | $20.66 | 108.00% | $43,010,538.00 | |
| 420-7002 | CL A CONC (MISC) (420-7002) | 21 | 83 | 395.20% | SYSTEMATIC | $1,963.37 | $1,091.48 | 79.90% | $34,940,981.00 |
Want your systematic overpricing patterns flagged automatically before your next bid? → Request POC access
Frequently asked questions
- What is TxDOT bid loss gap analysis?
- It's an analysis of your lost TxDOT bids that shows how far off the winning price you were, broken down to the bid item level, so you can tell whether a loss was a structural pricing problem or a single misplaced number.
- What counts as a "close loss"?
- A bid where your total came within a set threshold, typically 5%, of the winning bid. Close losses are treated as recoverable opportunities, since they usually trace back to one or two specific bid items rather than a structural pricing gap.
- Are competitors really underbidding, or is something else going on?
- Usually something else. Most winning bids come in within 3-6% of the engineer's estimate, and a competitor's advantage on specific items is typically structural — plant ownership, volume purchasing, self-perform capability — not irrational underpricing.
- How is "gap to winner" calculated?
- It's the percentage and dollar difference between your total bid and the winning bid, on the project overall and broken down by the specific bid items driving that difference.
- What is a "swing item"?
- The single bid item responsible for the largest share of the gap between your bid and the winner's, on a given project — the item that would have changed the outcome if priced differently.
- What is competitor price floor analysis?
- It shows what winning competitors actually bid, bid item by bid item, on project types similar to yours and in your district, replacing assumptions about being undercut with real historical pricing.
- What does it mean if a bid item shows up as a "systematic" overpricing pattern?
- It means that item is priced above the winner's average across many lost bids, not just once, indicating a baked-in estimating assumption worth revisiting before your next bid, rather than a one-time pricing error.
- Can I filter loss analysis by district or county?
- Yes. State and county filters narrow results to your local competitive market, since win rates, gaps, and price floors vary meaningfully by district.
- How far back does the loss gap data go?
- Up to 24 months by default, adjustable to a shorter window for more recent results only.
- Is Loss Gap Analysis free to use?
- Yes, available now as a free tool, no account required.