TxDOT win margin analysis: the margin you left on bids you won
The curse of winning
The curse of winning is the gap between what you won a project for and what the second-place bidder was actually willing to pay. That gap is margin that didn't need to be left behind, and it's invisible until someone analyzes it at the bid item level.
Three ways to see the margin you left behind
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Margin left on the table: your won bids summary
Compute the total dollar amount that the contractor could have charged more and still won — across all won bids in the selected time window.
Filters
Total margin left
$9,722,335.00
Won projects
2
Avg margin / project
$4,861,168.00
Top project gap
$7,515,942.00
Won projects
| CSJ | Project | Let date | Your bid | 2nd lowest | Margin left | Bid item margin | Win margin % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0196-01-109 | IH 35E AT MAYHILL ROAD. | 2025-06-05 | $123,539,232.30 | $131,055,174.43 | $7,515,942.00 | $2,918,730.13 | 6.10% |
| 0521-06-155 | IH 35 NEX South: 0521-06-155; IH 410 FOI | 2024-08-02 | $84,474,579.24 | $86,680,971.99 | $2,206,393.00 | $3,217,718.36 | 2.60% |
Want every bid item gap on your next bid flagged automatically? → Request POC access
Bid item gaps
| Bid item | Description | Unit | Your unit | 2nd lowest unit | Qty | Margin left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500-7001 | MOBILIZATION | LS | $11,500,000.00 | $13,100,000.00 | 1.00 | $1,600,000.00 |
| 442-6001 | STR STEEL (PLATE GIRDER) | LB | $2.55 | $2.65 | 4619300.00 | $461,930.00 |
| 420-6037 | CL C CONC (COLUMN) | CY | $945.21 | $1,569.77 | 526.20 | $328,643.48 |
| 442-6009 | STR STEEL (DIAPHRAGM & STIFFENER) | LB | $2.18 | $3.00 | 375130.00 | $307,606.60 |
| 105-6094 | REMOVING STAB BASE & ASPH PAV(12"-27") | SY | $7.89 | $15.00 | 40480.00 | $287,812.80 |
Want every bid item gap on your next bid flagged automatically? → Request POC access
Bid item margin benchmarking: your top items against market median
Identify the bid items that appear most frequently in your won bids and compare their unit prices to the market median on those same items. Surface bid items where you're systematically below market, not on one project, but across many, indicating a baked-in estimating assumption that's costing margin every time it appears.
Filters
Won projects analysed
2
Total below-market impact
$10,432,370.23
Top items returned
5
Bid item benchmarks
| Bid item | Description | Your median | Market median | Variance | Appearances | Total qty | Dollar impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 360-7004 | CONC PVMT (CONT REINF - CRCP) (8") (360-7004) | $126.25 | 159.430 | -20.80% | 2 | 211088.00 | $7,003,899.84 |
| 100-7002 | PREPARING ROW (100-7002) | $131,261.91 | 4395.8975 | 2886.00% | 2 | 160.00 | -$20,298,561.20 |
| 500-7001 | MOBILIZATION (500-7001) | $9,957,500.00 | 151287.000 | -3.20% | 2 | 2.00 | -$19,612,426.00 |
| 423-7001 | RETAINING WALL (MSE) (423-7001) | $87.28 | 92.601 | -5.70% | 2 | 150638.00 | $801,544.80 |
| 422-6001 | APPROACH SLAB (422-6001) | $324.69 | 154.6165 | 110.00% | 2 | 327859.90 | -$55,760,280.71 |
Want this benchmark run automatically on every bid item before you price your next bid? → Request POC access
Below-market patterns
| Bid item | Code | Dollar impact |
|---|---|---|
| CONC PVMT (CONT REINF - CRCP) (8") (360-7004) | 360-7004 | $7,003,899.84 |
| RAIL (TY SSTR) (450-6023) | 450-6023 | $2,626,925.60 |
| RETAINING WALL (MSE) (423-7001) | 423-7001 | $801,544.80 |
Want this benchmark run automatically on every bid item before you price your next bid? → Request POC access
Mobilization and lump-sum pricing calibration
Mobilization is consistently the most underpriced bid item across all contractor types. It's a lump-sum item (measurement unit = LS), and its value is set by your own judgment, not a quantity takeoff. It also frequently determines who wins the bid, since TxDOT evaluators and competitors understand mobilization as a cost-recovery mechanism, not a competitiveness signal. This isolates mobilization pricing specifically, computes your floor, and quantifies how much margin you gave away on this single item.
Filters
Your avg mobilization
$9,957,500.00
Market median
$10,100,541.85
Below market
1.40%
Total margin left
$1,835,000.00
Size band summary
| Size band | Your avg | Market median | Projects |
|---|---|---|---|
| over_30m | $9,957,500.00 | $10,100,541.85 | 2 |
Want your mobilization floor checked against the market on every bid, automatically? → Request POC access
Projects
| CSJ | Project | Size band | District | Your mob | 2nd lowest | Market median | Margin left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0196-01-109 | IH 35E AT MAYHILL ROAD. ($147.4M) | over_30m | Dallas | $11,500,000.00 | $13,100,000.00 | $10,400,000.00 | $1,600,000.00 |
| 0521-06-155 | IH 35 NEX South: 0521-06-155; IH 410 FOI ($100.5M) | over_30m | San Antonio | $8,415,000.00 | $8,650,000.00 | $9,801,083.69 | $235,000.00 |
Want your mobilization floor checked against the market on every bid, automatically? → Request POC access
Frequently asked questions
- What is the "curse of winning" in TxDOT bidding?
- It's the gap between what you won a project for and what the second-place bidder was actually willing to pay, margin that didn't need to be left behind, visible only once you analyze your won bids at the bid item level.
- Why do contractors leave margin on the table even on won bids?
- A bid can win by a wider margin than necessary on specific items without anyone noticing, since the bid still comes in competitive overall. Reviewing wins at the bid item level, not just the project total, is what surfaces it.
- How is "margin left" calculated on a won bid?
- It's the dollar difference between your winning price and the second-lowest bid, computed both at the project level and broken down by individual bid item.
- What is bid item margin benchmarking?
- It compares your unit pricing on your most frequently used bid items against the market median across many won bids, surfacing items where you're systematically pricing below market, not as a one-off, but as a repeated pattern.
- Why is mobilization pricing analyzed separately from other bid items?
- Mobilization is a lump-sum item priced entirely by judgment, not takeoff, and it's consistently the most underpriced item industry-wide. Isolating it shows your specific floor against the market and what it's costing you.
- What counts as "below market" on a bid item?
- Your median unit price on that item, across your own won bids, coming in lower than the market median for the same item over the same time window and geography.
- Can I benchmark margin by district or county?
- Yes. State and county filters narrow the analysis to your local market, since bid item pricing and typical margins can vary meaningfully by district.
- How far back does the win margin data go?
- Up to 24 months by default, adjustable to a shorter window for more recent results only.
- Does this replace how I price my next bid?
- No. It shows you where past wins left margin behind, by bid item, so you can price your next comparable bid with that pattern already accounted for. The pricing decision stays yours.
- Is Win Margin Analysis free to use?
- Yes, available now as a free tool, no account required.