TxDOT win margin analysis: the margin you left on bids you won

Frequently asked questions

What is the "curse of winning" in TxDOT bidding?

It's the gap between what you won a project for and what the second-place bidder was actually willing to pay, margin that didn't need to be left behind, visible only once you analyze your won bids at the bid item level.

Why do contractors leave margin on the table even on won bids?

A bid can win by a wider margin than necessary on specific items without anyone noticing, since the bid still comes in competitive overall. Reviewing wins at the bid item level, not just the project total, is what surfaces it.

How is "margin left" calculated on a won bid?

It's the dollar difference between your winning price and the second-lowest bid, computed at the project level, broken down by individual bid item, and shown as a percentage of what you actually bid, so you can compare across projects of very different sizes.

Why does my win rate matter alongside my margin left?

Win rate on its own only tells you how often you're winning. Paired with margin left, it tells you whether you're winning efficiently, a high win rate with a lot of margin left behind means you didn't need to price that aggressively to still come out on top.

What is bid item margin benchmarking?

It compares your unit pricing on your most frequently used bid items against what the 2nd-lowest bidder charged on the same projects you won, surfacing items where you're systematically pricing below that runner-up figure, not as a one-off, but as a repeated pattern.

What counts as pricing below the runner-up, and is it always a mistake?

It means your median unit price on an item, across your own wins, is lower than the median price the 2nd-lowest bidder charged for that same item on those same projects. It's not automatically a mistake, sometimes it's a deliberate strategy, buying down one item to win on total price while recovering margin elsewhere. The distinction is whether it's a one-time, intentional call or a pattern repeating across wins without anyone deciding it should.

Why is mobilization pricing analyzed separately from other bid items?

Mobilization is a lump-sum item priced entirely by judgment, not takeoff, and it's consistently the most underpriced item industry-wide. Isolating it shows your specific floor against what the runner-up bid on your own projects and what it's costing you.

Can I narrow this to my district or county, and how far back does the data go?

Yes. State and county filters narrow the analysis to your local market, since bid item pricing and typical margins can vary meaningfully by district. Data covers up to 24 months by default, adjustable to a shorter window for more recent results only.

Does this tell me what to actually change before my next bid?

It shows you where past wins left margin behind, by project and by bid item, so you can price your next comparable bid with that pattern already accounted for. Start with mobilization if it's flagged below the runner-up's price, then check whether any bid item shows the same pattern across more than one win, that's a template assumption worth fixing once. The pricing decision itself stays yours.

Is Win Margin Analysis free to use?

Yes, available now as a free tool, no account required.